Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if China lands humans on the Moon before the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface. This market resolves NO if the US returns astronauts to the lunar surface before China lands humans on the Moon.

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) and NASA confirming successful crewed lunar landings. A successful landing requires astronauts to reach the lunar surface and return safely to Earth.

Background

China has announced a preliminary plan to land two astronauts on the Moon by 2030, with an uncrewed Mengzhou-Lanyue mission planned for 2028 or 2029, ahead of the full crewed mission to the lunar surface in 2030. As of October 30, 2025, a spokesman for China's crewed space programme said the country was "on track" to launch its lunar mission by 2030.

Artemis III is planned to be the first American crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in December 1972. As of December 2024, NASA had officially expected Artemis III to launch no earlier than mid-2027, though significant technological challenges are impacting the program's timeline, pushing back the projected Artemis 3 landing to potentially late 2028.

Considerations

The timeline comparison is tight. Artemis III is scheduled to launch in 2027, but delays could bring it much closer to Beijing's planned lunar flight. China's program has demonstrated recent progress with successful hardware tests, while NASA's Artemis program has experienced multiple delays due to technical challenges with the Orion heat shield and SpaceX's Starship development. The outcome will depend on whether either program experiences significant setbacks or accelerations from their current trajectories.