MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
➕
Plus
14
Ṁ694
2100
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
The aggregate of 916 Metaculus community forecasters was Jan 17, 2027 on Aug 03, 2023.
AITechnical AI Timelines
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

Will we get AGI before 2027?
-6% 1d10% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
4% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
67% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
11% chance
Will we get AGI before 2036?
76% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
52% chance
Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
35% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
63% chance
Will we get AGI before 2039?
81% chance

Related questions

Will we get AGI before 2027?
10% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
52% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
4% chance
Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
35% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
67% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
11% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
63% chance
Will we get AGI before 2036?
76% chance
Will we get AGI before 2039?
81% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout