Will we get AGI before 2029?

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Ṁ2530

2028

44%

chance

ALL

AGI defined as transformative, at least human-level, but potentially superhuman AI, capable of doing at least any cognitive task humans can do, at least at human level.

Related to: https://manifold.markets/MarioCannistra/will-we-get-agi-before-2028

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Does brain emulation count as "AGI"?

Yes, even though I give it lower probability of happening than fully artificial AGI.

Once we get ASI, I suspect brain emulation will become trivial anyway.

What is a human level? Like the median human?

Must be able to do anything you would expect an average human worker working remotely, so basically any cognitive task an educated human can do.

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