Market Description
This market is a ranking competition in which human (who is alive as of Dec 14, 2025) are evaluated across three traits: Physical Strength, Intelligence, and Wealth.
Scoring System
I will select 5-10 human with best winning chance to rank.
Ranks 1 through 10 will earn 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 points respectively.
An option’s overall score is the sum of the points it receives across all three trait rankings.
The option with the highest overall score will be declared the winner of this market.
While personal preference and subjective judgment cannot be eliminated entirely, I will make a good-faith effort to answer questions and explain how I evaluate each trait and determine relative rankings.
I anticipate that cross intelligence comparison would be particularly subjective, if you ask me in the comments early on I will try my best to provide my answer to, for example, whether a specific chess world champion, fields medal winner, inventor, or hedge fund manager is considered more intelligent than the other option in my opinion.
Eligible Options
At a randomized closing time (to be announced), I will select the 5-10 options that I believe have the strongest prospects of winning.
Only these 5-10 options will be considered for all trait rankings and overall scoring.
I will make an announcement at least 2 days before the randomize closing period is set.
Market Resolution
The market will resolve based on the option that finishes with the highest overall score under the scoring system described above.
Notes:
If it is debatable whether certain human exist or is alive or not, I reserve the right to disqualify such option.
Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All three traits (Physical Strength, Intelligence, and Wealth) will be evaluated based on current levels as of the resolution date, not peak historical levels.
Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Physical Strength will be evaluated primarily based on strength to move or carry objects (e.g., weightlifting capacity). Endurance activities like marathon running are considered a separate trait and will not be factored into the Physical Strength ranking. Skill in applying strength may matter at the margin (e.g., to the extent it affects how much weight someone can lift).
Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Dr. Younghoon Kim has been disqualified from consideration due to concerns about legitimacy.
Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): When selecting the 5-10 finalists for ranking, the creator will aim to balance the number of top candidates from each category (Physical Strength, Intelligence, and Wealth). The target is approximately 3 from each category or 2 from each category, provided there are enough options with decent prices from each category.
Update 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Intelligence evaluation: The creator considers top mathematicians to generally rank in the top 20% for chess ability among the general population, but does not believe Magnus Carlsen would rank in the top 20% for math ability. This reflects the creator's view that chess skill (involving memorization and constrained spatial reasoning) should not be placed on a pedestal relative to other forms of intelligence like mathematical ability or programming prowess.
Update 2025-12-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Physical Strength rankings focus on muscle strength rather than skills in a specific sport.
Agility is explicitly excluded from the definition of strength.
If only you'd have added "Emotional Intelligence" or "Social Skills" to the list. And why pick wealth as a category? What it it was inherited?
@redcat can you imagine ranking EQ or social skills of the individuals. It would be super subjective and traders are not going to be happy with whatever ranking I came up with in this category
@AmmonLam EQ and social skills are actual human qualities as opposed to wealth. These are three arbitrary categories. Intelligence and strength are highly subjective as well, Why would you of all people be able to rank these people by intelligence? Based on what, their achievements in business, science or chess? If so, don't you see that this would unfairly favor billionaires, because wealth is a category as well? And how do you weigh these three categories? Are they all equally valuable? Why? Why might strength not be more important than intelligence, or intelligence more important than wealth?
I can see that it's probably not that serious, just a fun exercise. But IMO this market is pointless, ideologically questionable and billionaire fanfiction at best. On the other hand, if it's meant to be ironic, it's kind of brilliant. Mark Zuckerberg as the top human being ... very very funny. Although didn't he say once, that he's not human anymore? You should look into that.
Bezos focuses more on actual fitness and building a strong body, rather than more specific sports, so I think it's fair to say he is more buff, Meta was also forced to cut a lot of its investments in the Metaverse, indicative that he made a low IQ decision in the first place
@JonathanBarankin agree that the strength I rank here is more focused on muscle strength than skills in my particular sport. I do not consider agility part of strength either.
Added Pope Leo XIV. While he is likely physically frailer than Mark Zuckerberg, he does exercise and play tennis. He is likely in very good physical fitness for a 70-year-old.
He is probably more intelligent, as he is fluent in five languages and can read two more, and never tried to rename any Church to capitalize off the failed metaverse trend, and also has not tried to make a cryptocurrency that nobody wanted. Zuckerberg speaks two languages but Chinese netizens are critical of his Chinese, and English speaking netizens are critical of his English.
As for wealth, he is the Supreme Pontiff of the Roman Catholic Church, which means he controls all their assets, which naturally include thousands of artifacts, artwork pieces, relics, and buildings that are generally considered impossible to price.
@TiredCliche you’ll be fooling yourself if you think Pope Leo can win in an arm wrestling against any of the top candidates
@GazDownright weaker, dumber, and less wealthy than Larry Page. It’s over for Brin.
Need some more African billionaires like Elon, Johann Rupert, Nicky Oppenheimer, Nassef Sawiris in here
@Panfilo if someone want to create a which billionaire has the happiest life I would love to trade on that. I myself won’t create such market in fear of traders rage with whatever ranking I came up with
How do you estimate intelligence here?
Raw IQ-like estimate (g-factor style)?
Or a broader definition?
I'm aware that the g factor/IQ explains variance across many cognitive dimensions, sometimes substantially, sometimes less so.
However, rationality is probably an important dimension that many people here implicitly weight when assessing intelligence, and IQ explains only a modest portion of rational thinking performance.
For example, how would you rate Elon Musk versus someone with a comparable IQ, but stronger epistemic calibration and more consistent rational decision-making?