MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will a nuclear weapon cause over 100,000 deaths in 2023?
Mini
32
Ṁ8939
resolved Dec 31
Resolved
NO
1D
1W
1M
ALL

inclusing tests

Nuclear RiskNathan's DashboardNew Year's Resolutions 2024
Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ44
2Ṁ26
3Ṁ22
4Ṁ18
5Ṁ17
1 Comment
Sort by:

Does it have to be a single weapon? What if multiple nuclear weapons cause over 100,000 deaths in total?

Related questions

Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?
+4% 1d13% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2050?
34% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
12% chance
Will a nuclear power incident cause 25 deaths (or equivalent) before 2030?
13% chance
Will nuclear weapons cause at least [1, 1000, 100000] deaths in 2025?
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040?
27% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
12% chance
Will the United States kill 1,000+ people before 2026 with nuclear strikes?
2% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
19% chance

Related questions

Will a nuclear weapon be used militarily by the end of 2033?
13% chance
Will nuclear weapons cause at least [1, 1000, 100000] deaths in 2025?
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040?
27% chance
Will a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2050?
34% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
12% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
12% chance
Will the United States kill 1,000+ people before 2026 with nuclear strikes?
2% chance
Will a nuclear power incident cause 25 deaths (or equivalent) before 2030?
13% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
19% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout