Will the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' become law by July 4th?
21
แน€814
Jul 6
27%
chance

US President Donald Trump and congressional republicans have pushed for the One Bill Beautiful Bill Act to be passed by July 4th. Will this occur?

This resolves "yes" if it is signed into law by July 4th 11:59PM in Washington DC. This will be resolved from a combination of the linked Wikipedia page (ignoring temporary vandalism), and the congress.gov HR.1 page (which currently might be out of date). Any amendments are allowed as long as the wikipedia page still resolves to an article on passed legislation. I will not bet in this market.

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If we're waiting on 1 of 5 in the house to potentially flip, an 80 percent chance of each voting for it leads to 31%. I'm thinking 40% chance tops.