Question – Will commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drop below 20 % of its 2024 daily average for a continuous 48-hour period before 31 December 2025?

Method

• Baseline: 2024 mean daily transits of vessels ≥10 000 DWT carrying oil/products (Lloyd’s List Intelligence).

• Closure condition: AIS-verified transits ≤20 % of that baseline for ≥48 consecutive hours.

• YES on first occurrence meeting the condition; NO if none by cutoff.