If Iran halts or severely restricts international maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official governmental information, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified the following conditions for a YES resolution:
The focus is on any disruption from Iranian action that causes significant difficulty in getting oil through the strait.
The market may resolve to YES even if some ships are still getting through.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user question, the creator has confirmed that the market would resolve to YES if Iran specifically interdicts Western shipping, even if vessels from other nations (like Russia and China) are still allowed to pass.
@sahaj make a market, I'll bet the ceasefire starts on time (with possibly some small violence around the edges)
Iran has not received any ceasefire proposal and sees no reason for one, a senior Iranian official told CNN.
I'd guess they're in disarray, little communication and this dude wasn't told.
Iran's mission in NY refused to comment. That's definitely disarray. They'll find out within a few hours....
@FergusArgyll I'm pretty sure this is Trump trying to control oil prices.
@sahaj you can make a killing betting NO on polymarket - Israel Iran ceasefire before july - at 85% and climbing.
https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-before-july
@sahaj wow
I've enjoyed seeing the differences between poly and here in this war. It didn't seem like they were always more accurate but they definitely react quicker to news.
As an aside, as much as one can hate trump, there's no way he announces a ceasefire just for fun without actually brokering one. Iran clearly deescalated by doing no damage to US. Israel has been leaking that they're "almost done".
It's possible one or the other violates the agreement, but there definitely was an agreement
Reuters, citing a senior Iranian official: Tehran agrees to a ceasefire with Israel, brokered by Qatar and proposed by the United States.
@sahaj The ceasefire might not last, maybe you'll get a spike in a week or two. Many months left to 2025...
You can always set a limit order to the opposite of what you bet and it'll basically sell off at that price (for example you can set limit order NO at 40%)