Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
Public acknowledgement by both sides
Major US government figures declaring a state of active war between the US and Iran
Multiple media outlets reporting on the US-Iran war as actively and sustainably occurring
Other similar events indicating active public prosecution of a full-spectrum conflict
Note: Drum-beating propaganda or symbolic actions will not resolve the question to "yes".
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In the case of ambiguity, the creator may use alternative resolution methods. These include:
Resolving based on the market probability staying above or below a certain percentage for a period of time.
Conducting a sufficiently large poll.
The creator states they will resolve based on the spirit of the question and that traders will not be caught on a technicality.
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user query about specific news headlines, the creator has confirmed that a single headline is not sufficient to meet the “media consensus” criterion for a YES resolution.
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a query about a recent military event, the creator has stated that a single strike is not sufficient to meet the "sustained manner" criterion for a YES resolution. The creator will wait at least "a day or two" to see if an initial event develops into a sustained conflict.
Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user query, the creator has confirmed that a formal, constitutional declaration of war is not required for this market to resolve to Yes.
Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a user query for more concrete criteria, the creator has clarified the following:
Sufficient for a YES resolution:
A sustained campaign of military action with the intent of regime change.
A significant ground troop deployment in ongoing active conflict with Iranian forces.
NOT sufficient for a YES resolution (in isolation):
Very limited rounds of very targeted strikes.
An assassination mission against Iranian leadership.
The creator notes that other factors (e.g., language from media and US leadership) could still tip these scenarios towards a YES resolution.
@spider I agree with Joshua (edit: no, but he’s right to roast you) that you shouldn’t have a high stake in your own market if it has contested resolution criteria.
@MachiNi check previous comments- this position isn’t large relative to my portfolio size, I’ve changed from net yes to net no several times, and contested situations will resolve by neutral mechanism.
Also if I wanted to optimally make mana I’d just buy 50,000 yes and immediately resolve it. Holding a position hurts my ability to extract profit by a biased ruling.
@spider that makes no sense. What matters is you’re the fourth largest YES holder now and having read the comments I’m still not sure how you’ll handle the resolution.
@MachiNi I was the largest No holder as of yesterday. I was a large Yes holder last week. My behaviour is public, and compatible with my story.
If you have questions about how this will resolve under specific circumstances, as always, feel free to ask.
@spider it doesn’t matter—what matters is you having large positions at all. This is enough to influence your choice of resolution at any given time.
@MachiNi as stated previously, ambiguous situations will utilize neutral mechanisms (stays above / below X percent for Y time, a sufficiently large poll, or whatever else appeases you people)
@spider To be clear I'm not questioning your honor, just roasting you as a friend for being incorrect lol
Let’s make it clear. If we call it a “special military operation” and not a war, does it count?
Make concrete resolution criteria. You can’t just rely on what people call it. The Russo-Ukrainian war is clearly a war. This isn’t there yet. I’d like some things like “boots on the ground, a sustained campaign of military action with a strategic goal (beyond just breaking the nuclear program, for example- like regime change)”.
@Driftloom I can confidently say a sustained campaign of military action with the intent of regime change would resolve this market Yes, as would a significant ground troop deployment in ongoing active conflict with Iranian forces.
Very limited rounds of very targeted strikes, or an assassination mission against Iranian leadership would not in isolation be enough to resolve Yes, though other factors (use of language by the media and American leadership, etc) could easily tip the scales to a Yes resolution.
It’s hard to come up with a complete definition of war that captures common sense intuitions. If you have other questions about which way specific scenarios would resolve, feel free to ask.
@spider You mean of course a sustained campaign by the US. If Trump green lights Israel doing it then it doesn't count.
@DaniellqdC6 If the question was "Will Russia be at war with Ukraine before the end of 2022?" and the resolution was based on official Russian government sources, it would resolve NO. Blame the creator for basing the resolution on a dishonest source.
@SentientTree this doesn’t require official governmental acknowledgment, but it would be obviously presumptive to automatically resolve a question about a state of ongoing war the day after one strike. Read previous comments.