Will the U.S. launch a ground invasion against Iran in 2025? | Manifold

Will the U.S. launch a ground invasion against Iran in 2025?

12

Ṁ580

Dec 31

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A ground invasion is defined as at least 100 U.S. troops on Iranian soil.

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It would be cool to get a tighter definition of what counts as ground invasion? Any specific number of troops or how long they just stay or if the need to engage in fighting?

If I, as a US citizen travel there, get in a bar fight and leave would that count?

@AlexanderTheGreater I would say at least 100 U.S. troops on the Iranian soil. Inspired by https://youtu.be/N4cs-8mrP_s?si=kp2nflTezKZsg7Kj

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