What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?

What is your P(doom) right now? (used to resolve end of 2025 question)

Will Alex Zhu meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 2%?

Will Jeremy Nixon meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?

Will agent foundations [eg Scott Garrabrant] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?

Will davidad meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will manifold markets meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will Jose Luis Ricon meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3%?

Will MIRI meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 5%?