Forgot about this market...
Referencing the last seasonal CSU forecast (from a few weeks ago) I'm betting it down:
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-08.pdf
"U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) - 30% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville - 38% (full-season average from 1880–2020 is 27%) “
Edit (fixed quote): from my own notebook, for the remainder of season, historically suggests above 20% for a landfalling major hurricane in FL after August. Given the next TC genesis won’t likely occur until September, lower than 40% seems reasonable and above 20% due to the above average seasonal forecast.
I expect rest of September to be a bust (which is good news). Despite that, conditioning on September 7+ I get 17% historically (1991-2023 baseline).