Will China test a nuclear weapon before the end of 2025?
31
Ṁ13122026
24%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Chinese have said they will growth their strategic and tactical weapons stockpiles rapidly over the coming decade. This market resolves YES for the first test during the timeframe between the open and close dates conducted by the Chinese government.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
Growth of stockpiles doesn’t require testing of actual bombs. Nuclear physics is an old science. Nowadays the only thing worth testing is delivery.
Only reason for a test would be as intimidation.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
19% chance
Will Iran conduct a nuclear weapons test by the end of 2025?
21% chance
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2025?
31% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included)
15% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
16% chance
Which country will detonate the first nuclear weapon before 2025? (tests included)
Will China have a nuclear supertanker by 2027?
21% chance
Will the People’s Republic of China switch to a ‘launch on warning’ nuclear posture by 2028?
39% chance
Will China conduct a nuclear test in 2024?
7% chance
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2025?
20% chance