What will be true of OpenAI’s open-weight model?
24
Ṁ3822
Dec 31
17%
released in September, October, November, or December 2025
70%
released in the month of August 2025
13%
released in the month of July 2025
3%
released in the month of June 2025
96%
Is a reasoning model
6%
Is at least an Image-Language Model (ala JanusPro or 4o)
86%
Is at least a Vision-Language Model (ala PaliGemma)
73%
Uses Beyer Teacher/Student distillation ala Gemma 3
13%
my friend @soaffine (who knows ab ai) thinks it unveils an impressive new architecture
86%
An instruct model is made accessible
15%
A base model is made accessible
19%
The model is accessible to all users on the main chatgpt site
20%
Gets 1400+ Elo on lmarena.ai
14%
At least 300B parameters
24%
At least 70B parameters
30%
At least 30B parameters
83%
better than o3-mini on FrontierMath (with tools)
74%
Uses Mixture of Experts
67%
MIT or Apache license

Context:

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"reasoning model" will be judged with reference to OpenAI documentation.

bought Ṁ10 Is at least an Image... YES

What’s the difference between image/language and vision/language?

bought Ṁ10 Is at least an Image... NO

@KJW_01294 I think image/language generates images whereas vision/language only takes them as input

I've chosen to bet on the market that references me, but assert that I will be truthful in my evaluation of it. To help others, I would have said no to Gemma 2/3, yes to PaliGemma, yes to DeepSeek-MoE, but no to DeepSeek V3 and DeepSeek R1

bought Ṁ10 MIT or Apache license YES

"parameters" means total parameters?

bought Ṁ30 Uses Mixture of Experts NO

@JoshYou correct

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