Minor changes to the name, such as using "Kimi 3 400B A40B" or "Kimi 3.0 mini" or other names for a model generally expected to be called Kimi K3, will count for the purpose of this market
To count as released, the model must be accessible to some people outside Moonshot, and be officially announced. If it's banned in some country, this market would still resolve YES. If it is available through some API only this also counts as a release. If it's available to some users on the official kimi website, this is also sufficient.
See also:
/Bayesian/when-will-xai-release-grok-5
/Bayesian/when-will-openai-release-gpt6
/Bayesian/when-will-anthropic-release-claude-qZd5QEQ225
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-r2
/Bayesian/when-will-deepseek-release-v4
/Bayesian/when-will-meta-release-llama-5-6h9UypqOdp
/Bayesian/when-will-alibaba-release-qwen-4
/Bayesian/when-will-moonshot-release-kimi-k3 (this market)