Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things? | Manifold

Will LLMs be worse than human level at forecasting when they are superhuman at most things?

11

Ṁ371

2030

45%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to my personal opinion, unless @SemioticRivalry disagrees.

Feel free to ask for clarification about what is meant in the comment but I'll likely keep it vague to resolve to the spirit of the question if precise definitions might take away from that

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Does any amount past median human level count as superhuman?

@toms I think superhuman is generally better than (almost?) any human, so no

bought Ṁ10 YES

We die in most timelines where this resolves no

@Joshua We die in most timelines ̶w̶̶h̶̶e̶̶r̶̶e̶̶ ̶̶t̶̶h̶̶i̶̶s̶̶ ̶̶r̶̶e̶̶s̶̶o̶̶l̶̶v̶̶e̶̶s̶̶ ̶̶n̶̶o̶̶

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