Will Putin die before 2025?
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แน12kresolved Jan 3
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Putin is just 70 years old, and insanely wealthy. According to this, the life expectancy for 70 year old men is 13.6 years.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
@OzzieGooen On Metaculus, he's listed as likely ending his Presidency on Nov 2025.
I don't see the argument for him to have a high chance of death in the next ~18 months. I'd naturally place it at maybe 1-6%?
@OzzieGooen Obviously the idea would be that he'd get assassinated. I think 1-6% sounds about right.
@JamesColiar yea - I'd expect the odds of assassination to be low (<5%). That very rarely happens to world leaders like this.
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