Will self-improving AI agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science) in next 12 months?
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Taken from the State of AI Report 2023.
Self-improving AI agents crush SOTA in a complex environment (e.g. AAA game, tool use, science).
This question will be resolved based on the resolution of the 2024 report.
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Duplicate of:
https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/soai-23-310-will-selfimproving-al-a
Synthetic data is more or less having wins like this so most of the uncertainty is about whether the 2024 report will cite it or consider the substantial gains over SOTA 'crushing'.
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