Will there be a civil war in the US in the next 20 years? | Manifold

Will there be a civil war in the US in the next 20 years?

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40

Ṁ9774

2043

24%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Civil war: more of 25% of the US by area is not functionally governed by the US government.

Resolves in 2043 or whenever the civil war occurred.

🇺🇸 US Politics United States US Civil War

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Can you be more explicit about the resolution criteria? What is functionally governed? Maybe give a few examples of edge cases and tell us how you would resolve them, that might help with intuition.

“Functionality governed” what about reservations? Maritime zones?

predicts NO

@spider thoughts?

reposted

A few Republican states are using their own forces instead of federal ones to guard border with Mexico, violating commands

I would not be surprised if there was an insurgence of some sort after republicans win the 2040 election. 25% of the US by area is a lot though.

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