Will US inflation increase before unemployment decreases?
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Ṁ1244Oct 4
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Will the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increase by 1% or more (YES) before the unemployment rate decreases by 0.2% or more (NO)?
In other words, will price increases accelerate before there are more jobs?
Unemployment as of Aug 2 was 4.3% in July, up 0.2% from the previous release. Numbers are released on the first Friday of every month here.
Inflation is estimated based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is released on the second Wednesday of every month. CPI released August 14 is 2.9%, down from over 8% last month but still above pre-pandemic levels.
I’ll extend to the next releases date of each of these numbers until the question is resolved.
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The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Not a 1% or more increase. Thus we continue. Next release is new unemployment numbers on Oct 4.
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