What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2033?
What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2033?
Mini
10
Ṁ536
2033
12
expected

X = btc/usd on Jan 1 2023 (16605)
Y = btc/usd on Jan 1 2033
Resolves to ((Y/X)^(1/10)-1), interpreted as a percent (for example, 5% annual growth makes a resolution of 5)

If USD ceases to exist we use the successor currency at the last available exchange rate from USD to the successor currency.
If BTC ceases to exist we use the successor currency at the last available exchange rate from btc to the successor currency.

If USD ceases to exist without an obvious successor this resolves to maximum
If BTC ceases to exist without an obvious successor this resolves to minimum

If AI kills everyone and both cease to exist simultaneously, this uses the last available exchange rate.

Based on What will be the annualized nominal return of Bitcoin from 2023 to 2100? (5x amplified)35% (note that his market is numeric and not amplified)

Get Ṁ1,000 play money


Sort by:
bought Ṁ18 HIGHER11mo

The market-implied BTC value in 2033 Y=16605*(1.12)^10=51573 needs a 15% decline in BTC over the next 8.5y.

1y

Just want to clarify something, this is meant to resolve to the numerical value described as a percentage, like the linked market, that's why the lower bound is -30. If anyone who bet already misunderstood that, I'll N/A and remake the market.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.