How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)
11
Ṁ165
2030
Claude 3 released
8%
1 week
27%
1 month
8%
6 months
19%
Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)
10%
3 months
28%
Other

Inspired by this xeet https://twitter.com/chheplo/status/1762169694516301944

How much time will pass between a non-OpenAI LLM being released (like Gemini, Mixtral, etc) that beats GPT4, and OpenAI releasing their next LLM (GPT4.5, or GPT5, etc)?

Only the largest answer without going over will be chosen. So no saying 1 second and expecting to get all the mana.

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Claude 3 Opus looks like it beats GPT4, but I'll wait and see when some more independent benchmarks come out and verify the fact

bought Ṁ9 Other YES

So when does “never” resolve?

opened a Ṁ250 Never (ie OpenAI rel... YES at 20% order

@Johne5ee I assume it resolves if the next OpenAI LLM is released without a competitor beating GPT-4

@bohaska Correct intepretation, although I could have phrased it better. I'll see if I can add a clarification

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