Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040? | Manifold

Will Manifold house a prediction market service that utilizes real money trades by 2040?

54

Ṁ1956

2041

71%

chance

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Does not resolve positively if Manifold offers additional things you can trade mana for - trades themselves have to involve USD or another currency.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

@CarsonGale do prize point qualify if we get an USD exchange rate?

Yes for full USD exchange

Arbitrage, sort of:

Assuming Manifund doesn't count, why not? Is predicting charitable impact too narrow of a scope for it to count as a prediction market?

Does manifold have any CTFC connections?

CFTC

predicts NO

@xyz Not that I know of.

Would love to be wrong.

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