BET ON THIS MARKET AND GET Ṁ2!*
When this market closes, one of hit or stand will be chosen with probabilities proportional to the probabilities of the respective options.
NOTE: THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACTION DOES NOT NECESSARILY GET TAKEN!
Dealer has JS
We have 5H, 2D
Market Rules
After this market closes, the appropriate action will be simulated, and if the game requires more actions, a new market will be created with the same prompt.
At the end of the blackjack game:
If we lose, all markets will be resolved to "Lose"
If we win, all markets will be resolved to their respective played actions.
I will not bet on this market.
Market Close Time
This market will close once there are 35 unique traders of this market. (Plus the time it takes me to realize that the threshold has been reached, plus approximately 24 hours for users to bet freely.)
Additionally, I will post a comment approximately 24 hours before close.
What are the best bets to take on this market?
This is an experiment to see if this type of thing will actually work. I have no idea what the correct actions are for this market. Bet whatever you want, and have fun!
*To claim the Ṁ2, add a comment here: https://manifold.markets/CharlesLien/free-m2-for-betting-on-any-of-my-ma
Edit 7/20/2023: Added the 2 mana incentive and increased the threshold to market close.
how will a draw be resolved? you will be simulating it as if there is only one deck, right? for that matter I'd love to know how you will be simulating it in general. Also in American casinos it's often played where if the dealers card is a 10 (or a face card) the dealer will check the hole card before continuing to make sure it isn't an ace and stop play if it is, is that the situation here or is there a chance the dealer will get an ace immediately?
@MagWildwood I don't think it would be fair, since I already stated the terms of the closure in the description.
Also, even if this market closes, it won't actually resolve until the full game is over, so I don't see a need to close it early.
@ChristopherRandles That's just a placeholder date. I'll close the market when there are 35 unique traders on the market. Further details are in the description.