Given Trump wins all 7 swing states, will he flip another "Likely Dem" state or district?
Mini
4
แน€1021
Nov 16
1%
chance

This will resolve N/A if Trump does not win WI, MI, PA, NV, NC, GA, and AZ.

Likely Dem is any other state district that Biden won in 2020, so MN, NH, NM, ME (statewide), NE-2, VA are the most plausible that may flip.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Politics๏ธ PoliticsTrump๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 2024 US Presidential ElectionRepublican Party
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bought แน€20 YES

I estimate the odds of this as roughly

1 - P(Trump wins exactly 312 EVs) / P(Trump wins all 7 swing states)

Which is about 1 - 7%/20% = 65%

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