Anyone think that there’s been a more surprising/significant than October 7, 2023 (which apparently wouldn't have counted)?

Biden dropping out? It was surprising for sure, and I would argue it is significant enough (especially if Trump loses)

Yeah the Biden dropout was surprising, just look at our markets: he was at 95%

Will it shape the year, though? Shaped the US election, yes. It might not even impact the outcome of the election, though. Markets seem pretty chill. I agree it was surprising, but even a couple weeks later we are sort of business as usual with a new candidate.

When you compare to Covid (enough said) and Ukraine, seems pretty minor. The latter: Hot war in Europe, which reshaped geo-political alliances in a pretty big way.

I would say the Hamas attacks were less surprising than anything we're talking about, and probably more impactful than Biden dropping out (less so than Covid or Ukraine invasion).

Going back pre-2020, the previous suitably surprising and impactful event was probably Trump 2016.

In an election year? Probably

I would say 2020 and 2022 would be YES, but 2019, 2021 and 2023 would be NO from a worldwide perspective. 2001 wiould be YES. There will always be some room for discussion.

What would count? I'd say 2020 and 2022 would be YES (COVID and Ukraine respectively) and 2019, 2021 and 2023 would be NO — or would 2023 be YES because Gaza?