inspired by @AlexCao
If MIT rejects me, I will wait four years and then consider the amount of overall success that I've had. I will then resolve YES, 75%, 50%, 25%, or NO based on how much the rejection led to an overall decrease in success. If MIT accepts me or if I (somehow) don't apply, this market will resolve N/A.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
I think most people tend to recalibrate their expectations of themselves. Counterintuitively, going to MIT might make you feel less successful in four years than otherwise, if it enforces a self-image with high standards (although if you are rejected you might never know for sure if you would have felt this way).
But I'm betting toward 50% on the basis that the resolution is mostly psychological and therefore hard to predict.
@NicoDelon for instance, there’s an opportunity I really would’ve wanted that would’ve been available at MIT