@ScottAlexander just posted a blog post (https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/quests-and-requests) listing eight "Projects that need incubating." He states the following:
I’ll be starting a new round of ACX Grants sometime soon. I can’t guarantee I’ll fund all these projects - some of them are more like vanity projects than truly effective. But I might fund some of them, and others might be doable without funding. So if you’re feeling left out and want a cause to devote your life to, here are some extras.
A lot of the ideas seem like they could be good, or at least interesting, but they'd also require devoted effort. So I wanted to make this market on whether any of them happen in the next year. (Strictly speaking, by end of November 2024.)
There will probably be some discretion involved in determining whether the projects have occurred. Should he make any kind of public statement on this matter, I will fully defer to Scott. Otherwise, I will do my best — though if it becomes contentious, I may just defer to a poll or other decision-making body.
But should the responsibility devolve on me: I'd likely resolve to probabilities (probably 25%, 50%, or 75%) if a project has partially happened. Also, some projects, like #3, are less concrete and more about "doing things in a certain vein." For those, I'd do a full YES resolution if the project has achieved at least one substantial victory, or a well-developed organization.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has outlined their proposed resolution method for the market, stating they will use an assessment from Perplexity AI to determine each project's status. A 24-hour period is being provided for traders to dispute this assessment. If no significant disputes arise, the market will be resolved according to this AI-driven assessment. Please see the creator's linked comment for the specific proposed outcomes for each project.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ15 | |
| 2 | Ṁ8 | |
| 3 | Ṁ6 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
@traders This is what Perplexity outputted:
1. Replicate Brain Entrainment Learning Results
Progress: 50%
New studies (419) confirmed neural entrainment enhances cognitive performance, including a 2024 PNAS paper showing alpha-wave entrainment improves sustained attention. However, no replication of the specific Cambridge visual recognition learning experiment using consumer EEG headsets (1417).
2. Open Source Polygenic Score for Educational Attainment
Progress: 25%
While polygenic score research advanced significantly (59), including decomposition into cognitive/noncognitive components (9), no open-source consumer tool emerged. The SSGAC consortium released new datasets but maintained restricted access (59).
3. John Green-Style Pharma Campaigns
Progress: 100% (YES)
John Green achieved a major victory through a $57M USAID partnership for TB testing/treatment in the Philippines (6). This included $4M personal contribution and leveraged his 2023 price reduction campaigns against J&J/Cepheid (6).
4. Gradual Syntax Transition Language Method
Progress: 0%
Despite growth in adaptive platforms (710) and VR language tools (710), no implementation of Alexander's proposed syntax-graduated novel format. GPT-4 failed to produce adequate translations for this approach (17).
5. Automatic IAT Generator
Progress: 75%
Testable.org released an open IAT template with reaction-time measurement (11), but no turnkey platform for custom IAT creation. Harvard's Project Implicit expanded its battery but maintained centralized control (11).
6. Improved Dating Site
Progress: 50%
New apps like Sitch (AI-assisted matchmaking with 7K waitlist) and Fourplay (group dating) emerged (12), implementing some of Alexander's ideas. However, none achieved critical mass or solved the "first 1K users" problem at scale (12).
7. Classical Architecture Foundation
Progress: 100% (YES)
The ICAA expanded its influence through:
Partnership with INTBAU/Kings Foundation on preservation initiatives (1416)
Summer studio program training 120+ students (13)
8. Political Change Primer
Progress: 0%
While Manifund listed a proposed primer project (15), no completed document materialized. Existing resources like Aeon essays on policy change remained fragmented.
I will provide 24 hours for people to dispute this. If there are no disputes I will resolve according to Perplexity.
Sorry this has taken so long, the task of searching for everything really intimidated me (I need to remember to always require that things are linked in the comments) and I procrastinated it for awhile. Then I remembered AI existed
@traders Resolving this market is giving me an ugh field (that's why I haven't done it for a month - sorry). If someone wanted to propose a resolution, and other traders felt like it was reasonable, I'll give you at least M$1000
@Conflux have you tried to ask @ScottAlexander (here or in an Open Thread) whether he plans to write an update on his Quests and Requests anytime soon?
@lisamarsh I was wondering whether someone would ask! This has been sitting at the bottom of my to-do list for awhile. I was thinking about resolving it with Perplexity this weekend, actually.
@Conflux did scott ever say that he wanted to make a statement? That is, are we waiting for a specific announcement or is this more of a let's-see-maybe-he-writes-something-sometime thing?
@mmmeta It’s sort of a ugh-I-just-realized-how-annoying-this-market-will-be-to-resolve-so-I-am-praying-Scott-will-save-me-even-though-he-didn’t-promise-to situation
I am kinda shocked that 5 does not exist in the world. I guess one interesting part about the IAT, is that tons of folks have taken the race one, which lets the results say something more broad. Seems like it’d be worthwhile to have a consistent set of images for requests that happen more than X times, with a drop down to select those, and also have an option for free response.