Will I qualify for the 2024 International Linguistics Olympiad?
Mini
21
Ṁ1728
resolved Apr 19
Resolved
YES

I was the first alternate for 2023, and I've learned a few more tips since...but will I have the dedication and luck needed to qualify for my last chance: the 2024 IOL planned for Brasilia, Brazil?

See my 2023 market for more details on my past performance — if I have the energy, or this market gets popular, I'll copy them over:

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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Note: I’m not sure whether I’m going to actually compete, see below. But I did get an email informing me I’ve qualified.

@Conflux I’ve decided I’m planning to relinquish my spot, because I think the person who counterfactually replaces me will get more out of the experience than me.

I was thinking of doing a full practice Invitational this weekend, but I actually decided I'm not going to do any prep for the exam, which is next Thursday. The reason is that I was thinking more about what it'd mean for me to be at the IOL, and I realized I'm not especially interested in going full aggro mode to take a slot away from someone who's probably (~75% on each of these) more interested in linguistics than me these days, more excited to go to Brasilia, more inclined to participate in the prep sessions / study / want to be a good member of Team USA, and maybe more likely to benefit from the networking aspect. Especially when I've already proven that I'm approximately good enough.

Anyway, I did get #7 on the Open Round with similar non-amounts of prep, and I acquired some new highlighters, so I might still get top 8 on the Invitational. Note that if I qualify for the IOL but decide to stand aside and not compete in Brasilia, the market would still resolve YES.

Ranked #7 in US on the Open (#9 including Canadians) with almost no prep. If I kept up that relative performance level for the Invitational, I’d barely qualify for Brazilia. I feel excited so I’ll probably do some prep in the coming months!

bought Ṁ60 NO

@Conflux wait why did I bet yes. it’s true that this data point is an upward update but the market was too high before anyway

orz

predicted YES

orz

its triv

How much do you prepare/plan on preparing?

@Logaems I’m not sure yet - that’s part of what this market predicts. My preparation will probably happen closer to the Invitational Round, so like Feb/March.