According to YouGov, Nate Silver (who attended Manifest 2023 and 2024) has 47% name recognition. Will someone attend who has higher, according to YouGov? (They must be polled by YouGov to count. And I will be comparing to Nate’s name recognition then, if it changes.)

If Manifest 2025 does not occur, resolves NO. If something happens to YouGov, I will seek alternate resolution criteria based on the market spirit.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.