By 2029, will AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 Indie Games?
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2029
74%
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A single AI system must be able to use an arbitrary prompt to generate single player video games from any genre that exists today in 2023.

The generated games should be comparable in quality to indie games made before the year 2024 with a budget of less than $1,000,000.

The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

I will not bet on this market.

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A market targeting AA games:
https://manifold.markets/DanW/by-2029-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate a full high quality Video Game to a prompt?
19% chance. A single AI system must be able to use an arbitrary prompt to generate video games from any genre that exists today in 2023. The generated games should be comparable in quality to games created by 'AA' mid market studios in (or before) the year 2023. Some examples: "make me a multiplayer arena shooter in set in zero g" "make me a fantasy rpg with branching choices using a combat system inspired by D&D" "make me a voxel based open world exploration game based around crafting" "make me a mindbending puzzle game that uses perspective and time as central mechanics" The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist. EDIT #1: I will not bet on this market.
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I think it's worth discussing now what kind of <=2023 games should act as benchmarks, and on what criteria.

https://twitter.com/emollick/status/1894096525602574824

@AdamK https://twitter.com/kimmonismus/status/1895966293721055619

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 50% order

Trying to figure out whether I think this will happen in 26 or 27. With quite liberal judging criteria, I wouldn't bet against this year.

A market targeting AA games:
https://manifold.markets/DanW/by-2029-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

By 2029, will an AI be able to generate a full high quality Video Game to a prompt?
19% chance. A single AI system must be able to use an arbitrary prompt to generate video games from any genre that exists today in 2023. The generated games should be comparable in quality to games created by 'AA' mid market studios in (or before) the year 2023. Some examples: "make me a multiplayer arena shooter in set in zero g" "make me a fantasy rpg with branching choices using a combat system inspired by D&D" "make me a voxel based open world exploration game based around crafting" "make me a mindbending puzzle game that uses perspective and time as central mechanics" The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist. EDIT #1: I will not bet on this market.

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