Includes facilities underneath the hospital.
At the time of market creation (October 30th).
However if it's clear it was used as a command centre but unclear whether this had stopped by 30th of October or not, will resolve YES.
Resolution criteria:
I will make a judgement based on arguments in the comments and a critical reading of many sources, including the following:
Post war report from amnesty international
Eg: https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/mde21/1178/2015/en/
Findings from Isreal's Military Advocate General's Corps
More about them here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_Advocate_General
Eg: https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/military-advocate-general-s-corps/mag-corps-press-release-update-2-dec-2014
Open source intelligence analysis
Official Palestinian reports
Offical reports from other governments
Market resolution goes based on what I expect the median informed, intelligent person reading the same evidence would come away with.
If I judge there is not a preponderance of evidence pointing one way or another, I'll resolve NA.
I may change the criteria to make them better in response to suggestions.
On Oct. 27, 2023, the Israeli army released an animated video claiming to reveal what lay beneath Al-Shifa Hospital, Gaza’s largest medical complex. It showed underground tunnels, bunkers, and a Hamas command room — all depicted through slick 3D graphics.
“That information is ironclad,” insisted Mark Regev, then-senior adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during an interview the same day on CNN. “It’s based on Israeli intelligence.”
Israel’s first raid on the hospital would not come until mid-November. But the narrative had already been set. The clip was pushed simultaneously across the army’s Telegram, Facebook, YouTube, X, and Instagram accounts. On Netanyahu’s own X profile, it drew tens of millions of views. Over the subsequent weeks, dozens of international outlets would rebroadcast it for their own audiences, invariably accompanied by Israel’s claim that the hospital served as Hamas’ “main operations base” in Gaza.
But no such base was ever discovered. Moreover, the command room featured in the video was not unique; it had already appeared more than a year earlier in another animation published by the Israeli army, illustrating what it said was a tunnel beneath a UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) school in Gaza. The surrounding streets in the “Al-Shifa” video, meanwhile, were populated with storefronts from a commercial 3D asset pack — replete with fictional establishments like “Fabio’s Pizzeria,” “Andre’s Bakery,” and “Revolution Bike Shop.”
The “Al-Shifa” animation would become one of the most notorious examples of Israel’s new wartime communication strategy. It also marked the beginning of an accelerated phase of production within the IDF’s Spokesperson’s Unit: having published only a handful of 3D visualizations before October 7, the unit has since released dozens of similar videos depicting supposed terror sites in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.
https://www.972mag.com/israeli-army-3d-propaganda-animations/
@Emanuele1000 Some pro-genocide people still believe the 40 beheaded babies story. You can probably get some free mana if you make a market about it.
@Samaritan No one believes that story, including the Israeli government who does not believe it. Also almost no one is pro-genocide here. Hamas is pro-genocide.
@SemioticRivalry Before the inevitable chorus of "that is not enough for yes resolution because it's out of the time range" comes, I want to say that P(they were using it before market creation | they are using it now)>P(they were using it before market creation | what we knew a week ago), which was already rather high.
@nathanwei "At the time of market creation (October 30th).
However if it's clear it was used as a command centre but unclear whether this had stopped by 30th of October or not, will resolve YES."
This is weak evidence that it was used by commanders on or before 10/30. It's far from "clear."
@ElmerFudd Sure, if it starts being used as a command center AFTER October 30, that is not enough to resolve it as yes. But P(they were using it before | they were using it after) is extremely high. And I don't think you will see many people arguing it was not a command center after this, so even NGOs with a left-wing/anti-Israel bias like Amnesty International are unlikely to deny it, which is highly relevant for this question.
And it was used as a command center again.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/18/israel-hamas-gaza-shifa-issa/
@ElmerFudd Of course, but this is still a massive Bayesian update. This recent event has a much higher probability of happening in a world where Hamas used it as a command center before 10/30 than in one where they didn't.
@CertaintyOfVictory "Van Hollen, who had received a classified briefing about the U.S. intelligence on al-Shifa, said there were “important and subtle differences” between what Biden officials were saying publicly and what the intelligence actually showed. “I did find there to be some disconnect between the administration’s public statements and the classified findings,” the senator said."
And the market instead goes in the opposite direction... And I avoid commenting on the other market creator similar to this, who went viral the other day for saying that if you have giant breasts it's a victory for the right...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/18/biden-israel-gaza-rafah-palestinians/
@Emanuele98 Why do you cut the quote there? Why don't you quote the paragraph that follows immediately afterwards?
"A senior administration official strongly pushed back on Van Hollen’s characterization, saying the information that was shared with the public was an assessment the intelligence community had high confidence in."
Or this one that shows, that even the officials who were critical of Israel in inside discussions had no doubt that the US intelligence showed, that the hospital was used as a Hamas command center:
"In early November, Israel began warning that al-Shifa Hospital, Gaza’s largest, where thousands of civilians were sheltering, was being used by Hamas as a major command center.
That prompted a vigorous debate among Biden officials over whether to publicly support Israel’s claim, according to three senior administration officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to disclose internal discussions. Some worried that Israel would see such a statement as a green light to raid the hospital, while others wanted to use the information to show the public how Hamas embedded itself among civilians to underline the complexities Israel faced."
I will share an archived version of the article without a paywall so anyone can make themselves a picture without having to worry about dishonest cherrypicking.
@Daniel_MC for your deliberations.
@CertaintyOfVictory Because that part of the article is irrelevant , since it has been known since November, that the Biden administration says Biden did not lie is not new news. Ah, Chris Van Hollen is a Democrat,.
@Daniel_MC stay tuned tonight as Senior Hamas officials are being targeted by IDF in al-Shifa Hospital
Sold, I think there is a command center, but there is a good chance of N/A and toxicity. I think there is like a 65-70% chance of N/A, 30-35% of yes, and basically zero chance of no. If I hold my position in this market I am going to spend a lot of time checking it and arguing with people. So I'll just get out.
"This week, ORF correspondent Tim Cupal reported a rather coincidental insight into the underworld of the hospital: he had also been to Al-Shifa Hospital in 2014 to speak to the injured. After filming, he went too far down the stairs into the basement and was suddenly detained by armed men. At the time, it was an open secret that there were Hamas fighters in the Al-Shifa hospital.
[...]
Nicola Albrecht, former head of the ZDF studio in Tel Aviv, can also confirm that no one in the Gaza Strip doubts that Hamas is using the cellars under the hospital for its own purposes. She has been to Shifa Hospital around 20 times and it was clear to everyone that they, as media representatives, were never allowed to go into the cellar."
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ausland/gaza-krankenhaus-hamas-israel-keller-100.html
"The idea that one of Hamas’ main command bunkers is located beneath Shifa Hospital in Gaza City is one of the worst-kept secrets of the Gaza war. So why aren’t reporters in Gaza ferreting it out? The precise location of a large underground bunker equipped with sophisticated communications equipment and housing some part of the leadership of a major terrorist organization beneath a major hospital would seem to qualify as a world-class scoop—the kind that might merit a Pulitzer, or at least a Polk.
So why isn’t the fact that Hamas uses Shifa Hospital as a command post making headlines? In part, it’s because the location is so un-secret that Hamas regularly meets with reporters there."
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/top-secret-hamas-command-bunker-in-gaza-revealed
"At the Shifa Hospital in Gaza City, crowds gathered to throw shoes and eggs at the Palestinian Authority’s health minister, who represents the crumbling “unity government” in the West Bank city of Ramallah. The minister was turned away before he reached the hospital, which has become a de facto headquarters for Hamas leaders, who can be seen in the hallways and offices."
Regarding this quote from the description: "However if it's clear it was used as a command centre but unclear whether this had stopped by 30th of October or not, will resolve YES."
It seems clear that it was used as a command centre. Maybe someone can share intelligence about whether it's clear or unclear if this has stopped by 30.10.2023.