There is no reason that o1 should be considered a „breakthrough“

@Philip3773733 well, they did some kind of new chain-of-thought training paradigm, but it is true that we have as far as I can see not much information on what exactly. You could characterise “breakthrough” either as “how large is the performance gain” or as “how clever/novel is the method”

@Donald Do you agree that this resolves YES? have you seen the new o1 family of models (which is the new name for Q* it seems like)

@Bayesian from the information we have so far, I’d say it seems likely. I’m not sure we will get more specific information on the o1 model architecture and Q*, which would be nice for a clean decision

@Donald We probably won’t

way lower here https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/does-openais-unreleased-q-model-rel