Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
➕
Plus
1.5k
Ṁ1.2m
2029
16%
Other
16%
Gavin Newsom
10%
Josh Shapiro
8%
Pete Buttigieg
5%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5%
Kamala Harris
4%
Gretchen Whitmer
3%
Mark Cuban
3%
Cory Booker
3%
Tim Walz
2%
Wes Moore
2%
None
2%
Andy Beshear
1.9%
Stephen A Smith
1.7%
Raphael Warnock
1.7%
J.B. Pritzker
1.3%
John Fetterman
1.1%
John Ossoff
1%
Michelle Obama
1%
Mark Kelly

Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in 2028

Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention. If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention. Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"

Remember to bet for "Other". Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added

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opened a Ṁ250 None YES at 2% order

How does this resolve if there's no presidential election in 2028 but the Democratic Party goes through the motions of selecting a "nominee" anyway?

@DylanSlagh can we resolve Jimmy Carter as "No"?

@BlackCrusade It's dependent multi-choice, so no, it can only be resolved all at once.

@BoltonBailey Ah thanks, didn't know.

@XiaoLi is this a delete your mana market?

@BlackCrusade End date is 3333, so you never know

bought Ṁ50 Answer #4c72d923b98b YES

Is there a reason Tim Kaine was at 0%? He's a reasonable contender.

@TimothyBandors I feel like there will not be a lot of appetite in the Democratic party for people previously on tickets who lost to Trump.

@BoltonBailey Wow, I completely forgot that he was on the ticket in 2016. I think that election was extremely focused on Hillary vs Trump ("I'm with her"!), so I'm skeptical that it would be a big problem for Kaine.

aaah i really want to bet down newsom but i've already hit my loan cap for this market so i wont

bought Ṁ100 Gavin Newsom NO

@Robincvgr how do you see your loan cap?

bought Ṁ50 Other YES

Rahm Emmanuel?

Booker 👀

sorry to have to say this but can you add Barack Obama

@ZaneMiller Come on, don’t be ridiculous.

@Predictor Trump is considering a third term, and if they change something to make him eligible then Obama might become eligible too

@ZaneMiller I concur that Barack Obama should be added

Please add.

Gavin Newsom
bought Ṁ50 Gavin Newsom NO

@DylanSlagh How is he leading? California embodies the democratic policies/ideology that got Trump elected. The negative campaign ads write themselves.

@Shai Tons of delusional people on social media also believe Newsom has some sort of magic power to stop Trump from doing all he is doing cutrently and want Newsom to "speak up" and "get Trump out".

It's pretty funny, but also pretty damn sad they have no new path forward.

@Shai Newsom is one of Trump's favorite targets but that doesn't mean he embodies a specific set of policies or ideologies. Trump generally targets people he thinks are a populist threat. Charismatic leaders, social media savvy politicians... Newsom, AOC and Trump are ideologically equidistant from each other.

@Shai Probably Bay Area bias, I’m from the east coast and never even seen this guy speak before

@jumpman_folder And yet he's even higher on Kalshi.