Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the AI model that wins the Kaggle AI Chess Tournament held from August 5 to August 7, 2025. The winner is defined as the model that secures first place in the tournament. Official results will be announced on Kaggle's website and covered by Chess.com. (chess.com)

Background

The Kaggle AI Chess Tournament is a three-day event organized by Google's Kaggle platform in collaboration with DeepMind, Chess.com, and prominent chess personalities. The competition features eight leading AI models:

• Gemini 2.5 Pro (Google): An advanced AI model designed for complex tasks with enhanced reasoning and coding capabilities. (sourceforge.net)

• Gemini 2.5 Flash (Google): A variant of Gemini 2.5 optimized for speed and throughput. (blog.getbind.co)

• o3 (OpenAI): A reasoning-focused model capable of autonomous tool use, including web browsing and code execution. (medium.com)

• o4-mini (OpenAI): A compact, efficient counterpart to o3, optimized for speed and throughput. (analyticsvidhya.com)

• Claude 4 Opus (Anthropic): Anthropic's most advanced model, built for long-form coding, multi-step reasoning, and agent workflows. (leanware.co)

• Grok 4 (xAI): The latest AI model from Elon Musk’s xAI, marking a significant advancement in AI reasoning and natural language understanding. (sourceforge.net)

• DeepSeek R1: An AI model developed by DeepSeek, details of which are currently limited.

• Kimi k2 (Moonshot AI): An AI model developed by Moonshot AI, with limited publicly available information.

The tournament aims to evaluate the reasoning and strategic capabilities of these models through head-to-head chess matches. (siliconangle.com)

Considerations

• Tournament Format: The competition follows a single-elimination bracket format, with each match consisting of a best-of-four series. (siliconangle.com)

• Rules and Constraints: Models will respond to text-based inputs without access to third-party tools like Stockfish. They must generate moves independently, and illegal moves will be penalized after three retries. (siliconangle.com)

• Live Coverage: Matches will be livestreamed on Kaggle.com, with commentary from chess experts Hikaru Nakamura and Levy Rozman. (siliconangle.com)

• Performance Benchmarks: Prior to the tournament, models have demonstrated varying strengths in reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. For instance, Gemini 2.5 Pro has shown strong performance in complex reasoning and coding tasks. (datacamp.com)

• Model Capabilities: Some models, like OpenAI's o3, are designed for autonomous tool use, which may influence their performance under the tournament's constraints. (medium.com)

Traders should consider these factors when making predictions about the tournament's outcome.