Who will win the 2026 Chess Candidates Tournament?
Mini
10
Ṁ197
2027
10%
Arjun Erigaisi
8%
Fabiano Caruana
7%
Nodirbek Abdusattorov
6%
Gukesh D
6%
Alireza Firouzja
5%
Ian Nepomniachtchi
5%
Hikaru Nakamura
5%
Praggnanandhaa R
4%
Other
3%
Magnus Carlsen
3%
Wei Yi
1.9%
Daniil Dubov
1.9%
Wang Hao
1.6%
Vincent Keymer
1.6%
Ding Liren
1.6%
Vladislav Artemiev
1.6%
Alexey Sarana
1.6%
M. Amin Tabatabaei
1.6%
N/A (e.g. tournament cancelled)
1.4%
Wesley So

This market refers to this event:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026#Candidates_Tournament

An option resolves YES if a player wins the event and NO otherwise. If they do not participate, their option resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2026, I will adjust the resolution date until the end of the tournament.

I have added all of the players who currently (as of May 7, 2024) have a live classical chess rating >= 2700. No additional players will be added. The market resolves 'Other' if a player not on this list wins the event.

️ ChessBoard Games2026 Chess World Championship
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