MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will China invade Vietnam before 2030?
โž•
Plus
20
แน€2058
2029
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Will resolve yes if there is a significant military incursion on vietnamese soil.

WorldGeopolitics๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ ChinaGlobal MacroChina Taiwan potential conflict
Get แน€1,000 play money
2 Comments
Sort by:
bought แน€100 NO

Would a military operation to Paracel and Spratly Islands in the South China Sea count resolve this as a yes? The ownership of those islands are disputed.

No. It would have to be on the mainland.

Related questions

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
36% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
30% chance
Will Vietnam join BRICS before 2030?
40% chance
Will China declare war on another country by 2030?
21% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
48% chance
[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
6% chance
Will Vietnam acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
20% chance

Related questions

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
36% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2025?
7% chance
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
37% chance
Will China begin an invasion of Taiwan by 2028?
30% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
48% chance
Will Vietnam join BRICS before 2030?
40% chance
[Metaculus] Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
6% chance
Will China declare war on another country by 2030?
21% chance
Will Vietnam acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
20% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout