Will Hezbollah launch a missile at Tel Aviv in 2024?
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Will resolve to YES if a missile is launched by Hezbollah targeting Tel Aviv, irrespective of whether it is intercepted or succeeds in hitting its target.

I will consult statements by Hezbollah, as well as major newspapers (NYT, WSJ, etc.) before making a decision to resolve.

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@Epistemic_Hygiene can you clarify what you mean by “missile” and whether an unguided rocket counts? In military parlance, missiles are guided while rockets are not, while the press sometimes confuses the two.

I intended it in the military sense. To keep things as objective as possible, I will count the weapon as a missile if its Wikipedia entry describes it as a “missile”.

Excellent! Thanks for the clarification!