MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Tsunami risk in Japan until mid 2030
Mini
7
Ṁ699
2030
82
expected
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolves to the total direct death count from tsunamis until the end of the market.

🇯🇵 Japan
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
1 Comment
Sort by:
bought Ṁ50 LOWER

This number would require 8.0+ earthquake (probably multiple or 9.0+) and even then it needs to be the right type and in the right location. Too unlikely, so this probably resolves to 0.

Related questions

Tsunami causes over $1M damage in 2025?
77% chance
When will Japan’s mega earthquake happen
Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
31% chance
Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?
72% chance
Will Japan no longer be a developed country by 2050?
10% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
25% chance
Japan hyperinflation by 2030?
3% chance
Japan's population increases YoY before 2047
33% chance
Will there be a tsunami causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027?
14% chance
China gets direct land access to the sea of Japan from Russia through 2032
45% chance

Related questions

Tsunami causes over $1M damage in 2025?
77% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
25% chance
When will Japan’s mega earthquake happen
Japan hyperinflation by 2030?
3% chance
Will Japan acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?
31% chance
Japan's population increases YoY before 2047
33% chance
Will Japan produce hydrogen with nuclear power before 2031?
72% chance
Will there be a tsunami causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027?
14% chance
Will Japan no longer be a developed country by 2050?
10% chance
China gets direct land access to the sea of Japan from Russia through 2032
45% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout