What will Biden's share of the popular vote be in the 2024 election?
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Plus
26
แน€11k
Sep 1
53%
>= .0001%
10%
>= .001%
8%
>= .01%
1%
>= .1%
Resolved
NO
>= 1%

As far as I'm aware, he won't be on any ballots, and this market will primarily be about write-in votes.

I expect resolution will be somewhat delayed while we await certified counts and detailed reporting.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Politics๏ธ Politics๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 2024 US Presidential ElectionJoe Biden
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Total write-in count was 210,381, or 0.136%. Therefore Biden got < 1%, so I resolved that market No. Still working on the others.

@traders Anyone have a good resolution source? FEC report doesn't have it, where else should I look?

I don't yet see any clear reports on totals. Dave Leip isn't reporting numbers. Might have to wait for the FEC report. Let me know if you have a good source before that.

Biden got 7 out of 896 Write ins (1 in 128) in Bergen County (1 in 64,000 of all votes).

bought แน€150 >= .01% NO

@EvanDaniel For comparison, this is a level exceeded in the 2020 election by Mitt Romney, Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie Sanders, and many others, some purely on write-in votes. Mike Pence and Andrew Yang did not meet the .0001% level. No candidate achieved .001% purely on write-in votes.

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