This market resolves to "Yes" if, by 23:59:59 GMT on December 31, 2025, Safe Superintelligence (SSI) publicly releases new content that provides insight into their ongoing work and activities. This includes:
New content on their official website (ssi.inc): This could be in the form of blog posts, research updates, new sections describing their progress, or a substantial refresh of their existing "mission statement" front page that offers more detail on their current endeavors.
Publication of a research paper: A paper published by one or more members of the SSI team in a peer-reviewed journal, conference proceedings, or (more likely) a preprint site (e.g., arXiv) that explicitly lists SSI as an affiliation for the authors and discusses their research directly related to their mission.
Official press release or public statement: A formal communication from SSI (e.g., via a newswire service, major news outlet, or direct announcement on their social media channels) that details their current work, research direction, or significant milestones achieved.
This market resolves to "No" if none of the above criteria are met by the deadline.
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-11-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that a Dwarkesh Podcast episode featuring Ilya may count toward resolution if it provides insight into what SSI is doing beyond simply restating their mission statement. The market will resolve YES if the podcast episode uncovers new ground about SSI's work and activities, even though this type of content was not explicitly listed in the original resolution criteria.
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I've thought a little bit about the forthcoming Dwarkesh Podcast episode. I will need to listen to it fully, but if Ilya says something that gives an indication of what SSI is doing other than simply restating their mission statement, then I will consider this to resolve the question to 'yes'.
I appreciate the description is a bit fuzzy, and doesn't really account for this. But in the spirit of the question, I think it makes sense for it to resolve positively if we uncover new ground with SSI.
@Gmanishere This should resolve YES, he talked about the plan (make AI that generalizes well) and gave approximate timelines