Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028? | Manifold

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Mini

8

Ṁ545

2028

94%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

Two questions:

How do you resolve this bet? How do you define the costs?
What is the difference with this seemingly identical bet? https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-llm-training-costs-fall-100x-b-4303c981c158

@ErwinRossen Agreed that it’s not clear enough as is. If LLMs get 100x easier to train but the $/FLOP doesn’t change, does this resolve YES or NO? If the latter, then need to take a specific model and place a $ value on training it with a fixed recipe. If the former, then need to specify a benchmark score that needs to be reached.

predicts YES

800-10k llamas

Related questions

Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

LLMs to the moon? (By 2030)

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Related questions

Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLMs be better than typical white-collar workers on all computer tasks before 2026?

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

LLMs to the moon? (By 2030)

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?