Nice market, but a lot of questions:

What if fusion happens first?

And what if fusion happens after the superconductor but there's no causality?

What day do you use to measure the discovery? Publication of first paper?

@SimoneRomeo Thanks, good questions. If fusion happens first, we're no more in the range of the question => N/A

If there is no apparent causality I will still consider this as a pass, as it would be hard in any case to prove the causality.

For dates, I will use publication of first result paper (or paper of first serious replication if the material is already published but finally show properties afterall )

@Guillaume mm.... I'm afraid it would be controversial to define fits as a "serious replication"

@SimoneRomeo I would personally use commercialization (first superconductor is sold on the market) as a milestone, but this could shift by itself the timeline by one year

@Guillaume btw, causation could be established if the fusion reactor actually make use of the superconductor