2) Stability AI will shut down.
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Dec 31
18%
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All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].

  • I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.

  • I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.

Description of this prediction from the article:
It is one of the AI world’s worst-kept secrets: once-high-flying startup Stability AI has been a slow-motion train wreck for much of 2023.

Stability is hemorrhaging talent. Departures in recent months include the company’s chief operating officer, chief people officer, VP engineering, VP product, VP applied machine learning, VP comms, head of research, head of audio and general counsel.

The two firms that led Stability’s high-profile $100 million financing round last year, Coatue and Lightspeed, have reportedly both stepped off the company’s board in recent months amid disputes with Stability CEO Emad Mostaque. The company tried and failed earlier this year to raise additional funds at a $4 billion valuation.

Next year, we predict the beleaguered company will buckle under the mounting pressure and shut down altogether.

Following pressure from investors, Stability has reportedly begun looking for an acquirer but so far has found little interest.

One thing Stability has going in its favor: the company recently raised $50 million from Intel, a cash infusion that will extend its runway. For Intel’s part, the investment seems to reflect a pressing desire to get a high-profile customer to commit to its new AI chips as it seeks to gain ground against competitor Nvidia.

But Stability has a notoriously high burn rate: at the time of the Intel investment in October, Stability was reportedly spending $8 million a month while bringing in a small fraction of that in revenue. At that rate, the $50 million investment won’t last through the end of 2024.

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They just laid off 10% of staff

Are they doomed to become open source martyrs? They launched a devastating Free and Open Source payload into the world, backed by capitalistic trebuchets, but is that it?