In which state will the tipping point House seat be located in the 2024 US Election?
Mini
20
แน€2810
Dec 31
32%
California
30%
Pennsylvania
8%
Colorado
7%
Arizona
6%
Other
3%
Nebraska
3%
Iowa
3%
New York
3%
Maine
2%
Texas
1.8%
New Jersey

Order all the 2024 House races by the Democrats' margin of victory (i.e. % D vote - % R vote). Which House race is the one that would give Democrats their 218th seat? In 2022, it was Iowa's 3rd Congressional District. See more: https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Congressional_margin_of_victory_analysis

This market will resolve ignoring any resignations or deaths, purely based off the recorded election results.

Feel free to add your own answers, however they must be valid states that have not already been added.

๏ธ Politics๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Politics2024 US ElectionDemocratic PartyUS Congressional Elections 2024
Get แน€1,000 play money
4 Comments
Sort by:

I presume that this will treat the Alaska margin as the runoff margin rather than first-round margin, much like the Ballotpedia page does?

@EricNeyman Yes, exactly.

bought แน€20 California NO

I don't know why California was trading at 98%. Brought it down to a more reasonable 30%.

bought แน€5 New York YES

Cool market idea, boosting

Related questions