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Estimate that it will be the warmest year is now >0.95 https://x.com/hausfath/status/1821952219463479656

"previous 25 years" including 2023?

@StevenK yes

On average the temperature is surely increasing, but the yearly average temp tends to be a bit of a sawtooth/zigzag where on the years that it sets a record, it increases more, whereas non-record years are only slightly cooler.
So 50-60% seems reasonable to me, so I bid it down.

I also recalled another market where I think I could do a bit of arbitrage against it, and hence avoid a ruinous outcome.