One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
Market resolves once existential risk seems significantly more researched by the global scientific community than it was at market creation.
@IsaacKing peak oil will only kill 99% of people not 100% so I asked. But no either way.
@MarkIngraham Peak X for all natural resources X is largely fake. Reserves are calculated from what is known to be in the ground in specific places and extractable at current prices. People always find more reserves over time and as the price goes up. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/56eddde762cd9413e151ac92/56fa8e425bd3306c4a738644/56fa8fa75bd3306c4a73c9cd/1459261351006/The-No-Breakfast-Fallacy-ONLINE.pdf?format=original
For high enough oil prices it would be easy to synthesize it from biomass too.