Been keeping track of the video for a while.

https://youtu.be/Bbwp4PbWYzw?si=NaaYJRTHOfi_Nlog

1 year to go from 800k to 2 million views. (Needs to average 3k per day).

8 Nov 23: 805k views

9 Nov 23: 810k views

10 Nov 23: 816k views (posted 120 days ago= 7k views per day on average)

14 Nov 23: 833k (4k per day since 10th)

15 Nov 23: 837k

16 Nov 23: 843k (3.5k per day to reach 1m by end of year)

17 nov 23: 849k

18 nov 23: 855k

20 Nov 23: 866

21 Nov 23: 869

22 Nov 23: 872

25 Nov 23: 893 (~4k per day) (2.9k to reach 1m by end of year)

26 Nov 23: 905

28 Nov 23: 917 (6k per day)

30 Nov 23: 927 (10k per day)

5 Dec 23: 956 (6k per day)

9 Dec 23: 976 (5k per day)

11 Dec 23: 986 (3k per day)

18 Dec 23: 1016 (4k per day)

21 Dec 23: 1027 (3k per day)

31 Dec 23: 1059 (3k per day)

9 Jan 24: 1088 (3k per day)

Needs to average 2.6k per day to get 2 mill by end of 2024

20 Jan 24: 1131 (4k per day)

5 feb 24: 1188 (3.5k per day)

11 Feb 24: 1203 (2.5k per day)

24 Feb 24: 1249 (3.5k per day)

Any updates?

ig
24 feb 24: 1249
30 July 24: 1683 (2.76k per day during that time)

At that rate we hit 2108 (so more than 2 mil) by the end of 2024. epic!

I think "The True Story of How GPT-2 Became Maximally Lewd" seems more likely now right? It's been out half the time of "The Goddess of Everything Else" and has more views.

I had not noticed that, ty!

"The True Story of How GPT-2 Became Maximally Lewd" does not qualify for this market since it was released in 2024

The condition has been met with many more than 5 videos released, so I've edited the title to be simpler.

As of right now, the most-viewed qualifying video is The Goddess of Everything Else, with 980,000 views.

The YES limit orders are to try to sell some because I'll be donating most of my mana before year end, not because of any particular market opinion.

@NamesAreHard 🥲

it's been an honor

btw if you became less active or left for any particular reason it'd be cool to get manifold feedback about it!

Highly underpriced. If you disagree, please fill my limit orders, I left plenty of them

poor guy

Lets hope he doesn't get super motivated and makes a really good video.

Hahahaha they just came out with a new video today:

@Writer Nice. Video. The animations are so cute.

Why is it that I am the person with the 10 most No shares, others have far more than me, but I bet it down to 50% while the others did not

@Timothy the big no holders were buying NO while the yes holders had a big limit order in place, so their bets didn't move the market price

@Timothy There were no YES limit orders, it's just that we were waiting for Writer to buy into our NO limit orders at 90%+ and that's how we accumulated our positions.

@NamesAreHard I wish I found this market sooner, lol

@NamesAreHard that makes sense. I knew there were limit orders involved but didn't check the bet history to confirm whose they were

Am I misunderstanding the market? How come it's so high? As far as I can tell the candidate video with the most views has 447k views at the moment. Does the market believe there's a >90% chance that one of those videos will get >1.5M new views before the end of 2024?

@BraulioValdivielsoMartine Hmm, the owner of the YouTube channel seems to be the only major Yes holder.

@BraulioValdivielsoMartine they might release another video before end of 2023 that goes viral in a big way, or one of the existing videos might make the rounds. I've been on no, but not certain enough about the chances to bet it far down

@braulios The owner of the channel seemed happy to buy YES at any probability, so there was no reason to bet it down anywhere close to the actual probability when we could get cheap NO shares at 85%+ :)