Uses the same definition of "competitor" as in this market.
For clarity, the specific comparison is "is the competitor as successful two years after its launch as Manifold was two years after its own launch?". I'm checking success at the two year point, not beforehand, so if the competitor quickly becomes more popular than Manifold but then loses that popularity before two years have passed, its brief moment in the sun won't count in its favor.
If multiple competitors are launched, this market is about the first one. (I'll make a separate market for the second.)
I won't bet.
I'm not sure what the strictest definition of a competitor would be, but part of what is underlying BrierFox is open source software, and there is a market which has been put together which hopefully verifies, toward the end of the year, on a third party basis, what direction the software itself is going. https://manifold.markets/jack/will-socialpredict-be-run-by-two-pu
Should this count as the first competitor? Or should we not count things this rough?
@IsaacKing Strictly speaking, your other market says anyone has to be able to make a market right? But right now Brierfox is invite only, so maybe that doesn't count?