This market resolves YES if, during October, there is a Google search term which spikes like crazy. This is determined based on the following method:
On Google Trends, pick "Worldwide" and "Web Search".
Pick a search term that you want to check for craziness.
Pick "google" as the search term to compare to.
Look at the end-of-day scores for "google" and [term]. The [term] : google ratio is the craziness score (C).
If on one of the days, C(term, day) > 0.5, and there exists a day in the previous 30 days such that C(term, day) / C(term, past_day) > 5, then this term is indeed CRAZY, and the market resolves YES.
Important exception: scheduled events which are fully expected to trend ahead of time do not count as crazy, even if they meet the craziness criteria. This includes things like:
Olympics
World Cup
Big movie releases
U.S. presidential elections
Some events in recent years which did meet the craziness criteria are:
Assassination of Qasem Soleimani
Death of Kobe Bryant
COVID-19 pandemic
January 6 capitol riots
Russian invasion of Ukraine
Will Smith slapping Chris Rock
Death of Queen Elizabeth II
Israel-Gaza war
Trump assassination attempt
Biden dropping out of election
Iran-Israel war
Charlie Kirk assassination
Due to the partially subjective criteria, I am not betting in this market.
Update 2025-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The factor of 5 increase is measured against the previous 30 days from any given day in October, not necessarily just days within October itself. For example, if a term is popular on October 15, the comparison starts from September 15.
@dfish no it's supposed to be 5. The point is that the search term becomes at least 5 times more popular within a month. That way a search term which is constantly high, like "facebook" or "AI" doesn't count as crazy.
@ItsMe, OK. I understand now: the ratio increases by a factor of 5 or more at some point during October, but the larger ratio must be greater than .5 so that trivial fluctuations are excluded. I like the use of these criteria.
@dfish yes but to clarify, the factor of 5 is measured by the previous 30 days, not necessarily October. So if a term is popular on October 15, we measure starting from September 15